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Robinhood Markets, Inc. Rockwell Automation, Inc. Rogers Corporation Roku, Inc. The clock is ticking and if the company cannot show that the business will scale over time as advertised the funding will dry up and the company will go into a cash death spiral starting in With that combination, ANY churn rate of significance will be toxic — as we will show.
The math for the customers acquired during the last quarter works out as the following:. Now admittedly this is just a snap shot in time… but it stands to note that the negative contribution of the marginal customer has deteriorated since the IPO as the company has scaled up.
There are really only two numbers that we feel can move enough to make the Vonage business model profitable from current levels — lower churn rates or lower per line customer acquisition costs [CAC]. For churn rates, the margin of error in our analysis is large, e. Ultimately all of the math on churn nets a negative NPV per customer on their current subscriber additions.
Furthermore for any improvement in churn to improve the marginal NPV, it would have to be done without a corresponding increase in operational cost or lower average price per unit [ARPU] — either of which would partially offset the benefit of lower churn by compressing the EBITDA margin. Lowering churn without increasing service costs or lowering prices relative to the competition is something that is difficult for even the best run companies.
We think this is optimistic because the marginal customer tends to be more expensive to find and not less you pick the low-hanging fruit first and Vonage is already in the range of industry norms for this line item. Vonage and other VOIP players have tapped the early adopter market and now are in the same highly competitive boat for customers as all retail telephony suppliers.
Assuming that the company is only able to keep acquisition costs near where they are today as they grow rather than shrink them, the company will not reach the necessary margin improvement to make new customers profitable. Retail telecom operations are like sharks, they must keep moving forward and adding new customers, or the churn will overcome them and they will sink to the bottom.
Part of the reason for this is that churn is not a straight line event. It is industry standard for churn to be heavily weighted to the early portion of the customer lifecycle. Cuts in marketing costs that lead to lower subscriber additions result in a rapidly shrinking subscriber pool — not one that shrinks at the 2. Perhaps the company can squeeze significant efficiencies from its marketing efforts without impacting growth projections — but we doubt it.
Even if they can, we doubt they will be significant enough to offset a more realistic forward churn rate of 2. Not likely. Holding all other factors equal, as each incremental customer becomes more expensive to find it is reasonable to expect that the yield per marketing dollar spent will deteriorate and the rate of cash attrition will only increase from current levels either through higher marketing costs or through lower subscriber adds.
How do these analyses net a positive valuation when our analysis of customers added is always negative? In order to reach positive NPV in their DCF calculations, the sell-side analysts need to show cash flow on the marginal customer. That margin can then be extrapolated into future cash flows to discount back to present value in the DCF model. This is a razor thin margin for error. This sets the stage for what we feel will be a host of potential negative catalysts to drive VG stock lower from current levels.
While we are skeptical of use of the DCF valuation that sell-side firms have put on Vonage but not surprised as any other form of valuation would net a big fat zero for the foreseeable future , we are even more skeptical of the series of dubious assumptions that must be made to get the highly compliant DCF to generate a terminal value significant enough to discount back to current share prices.
The best wireless churn rates are between 1. Long distance providers like Vonage generally have churn rates of 2. An estimated churn rate of 2. To lower their current churn without increased costs or lower ARPUs strikes us as highly unlikely. If churn rates stay steady instead of declining as expected the company will never reach the EBITDA inflection point necessary to avoid running out of cash.
This ignores some important points — 1 Most of the brands that Vonage competes with are far more established brands and therefore have efficiencies of reach and imprimatur of quality that Vonage lacks; 2 Those brands have multiple product lines which help drive cross-product efficiencies that Vonage does not have with its single product line; 3 Those operations are much larger so they are spreading their mass marketing expense across more customers and revenues; 4 The cost of the marginal customer addition tends to be more difficult and more expensive as a market is penetrated.
Failure to meet any one of the above expectations except for the equipment subsidy will likely result in a liquidity crunch rather than future cash flows to discount in a DCF. If the two more likely scenarios play out — lower ARPUs and no reduction in CAC efficiency — that liquidity crunch could come as early as the 1st quarter of If, in addition to the two points just listed, churn rates do not improve as modeled, VG could run out of cash before the end of Not factored into the above are another 3 critical challenges that Vonage faces — none of these are factored into current expectations, but all stand to create a negative impact for VG shareholders.
If you needed more reasons to believe that VG stock is in trouble, here they are:.
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Vonage went public in , and opened trading at. rchaz.xyz › sites › greatspeculations › /05/14 › remember-von. By no means is Vonage's unhappy experience irreversible. Shares were up 35 cents at $ in 4 p.m. composite trading on the New York Stock.