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After the results came out, they were adamant about giving a tough fight to Congress party in the department of denial. We have always maintained that if we were wrong we would be very wrong—that we would see the polar opposite of our projections. He summarised the lessons learnt in a tweet.

Our mistakes are clear — we arrived at the right insights about the people we are studying but weighed electoral impact based on an outdated political model. We now have the data we need to inform a far more accurate index of weights. But the question is whether they indeed arrived at the right insights about the people they were studying in the first place, or if they got something wrong there as well.

Who can resist confirmation bias? Consider demonetisation for example. It came with this clarification. If demonetisation's impact on the rural economy is being seen in the same way as it is among avowed Modi supporters in urban centers — a necessary step that hurt unethical businessmen — then we will be wrong.

From what we know from the Uttar Pradesh elections, which gave the party a huge majority in the state assembly barely a few months after the exercise, the impact of demonetisation on people was far more complex. German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer says simple models trump complex models because the latter often demands more assumptions.

And those assumptions screw up the results. Facebook heard it. In , Facebook launched a virtual currency called Facebook Credits. The rationale was simple. Facebook users were paying different types of digital currency to buy digital goods from the applications such as Farmville from Zynga that ran on its platform. Instead of using them, Facebook said its citizens can use a common currency to buy products from across applications.

It hired Prashant Fuloria, a top notch payments guy from Google. Its future seemed bright. The currency need not be restricted to apps on its platform, but could be used on the web in general. Its Facebook Connect, which allowed easy log in into other sites, was already popular.

It was selling Facebook Credits offline, but it could even be used for offline purchases and compete with companies such as PayPal. Facebook itself could become an ecommerce company, selling goods and services based on social networking. And within three years, it shut down its Credits.

Fuloria moved on, and is now COO at Fundbox. Facebook has become serious about payments, and announced that it is launching a cryptocurrency called GlobalCoin next year. Login to comment. His main interests lie in technology, business, society, and how they interact and influence each other. He writes a regular column on disruptive technologies, and takes regular stock of key news and perspectives from across the world.

Ram, as everybody calls him, experiments with newer story-telling formats, tailored for the smartphone and social media as well, the outcomes of which he shares with everybody on the team. It then becomes part of a knowledge repository at Founding Fuel and is continuously used to implement and experiment with content formats across all platforms. He has also written for The Hindu , Quartz and Scroll. Toggle navigation. Explore By Category. By Content Type. Articles Columns Videos Podcasts.

Editors picks. Around the web. In this issue: How X bridges tech-policy gap; data ownership; election predictions; Facebook and insurance frauds N S Ramnath May 26, a. Technology Print this. How do you eat an elephant? They represent two different mindsets. China's current demand for ivory is likely the primary catalyst in the world for the illegal ivory trade.

Convention and to prohibit trade in specimens in violation thereof. Appendix I is the most stringent level and is reserved for species near extinction. The CoP attempts to minimize the effect of existing limitations through various Resolutions and Decisions. The Resolution Conf. The CoP, however, also has taken some controversial actions. Responses by the Parties, Resolutions, and Decisions. The discussion at the CoP16 was heavily focused on the consumer demand for ivory. Legal Landscape: United States and China.

The United States and China have an obligation under CITES to strictly regulate the ivory trade, including forbidding commercial imports of ivory removed from the wild post and allowing only non-commercial imports of post-ban ivory in exceptional circumstances.

While the United States has a broad, but strong legal framework for exports and imports, this Subpart first discusses how federal law is limited in regards to interstate trade. Second, this Subpart elucidates the complex Chinese laws on the ivory trade.

On June 9, , the FWS, on behalf of the Secretary, acted pursuant to this power and imposed a moratorium on all importation of ivory from all nations. In and , China enacted the regulatory system it has today. While China has not issued any new domestic laws or regulations, the United States is enhancing its regulatory and enforcement structure regarding the ivory trade.

Second, a discussion follows of the regulations the FWS has taken or plans to take pursuant to this Strategy. As of July 1, , the FWS has implemented the first of the actions. The United States has taken other actions internationally pursuant to the Executive Order, particularly in collaboration with China. In summary, after the bleak reports and slow progress of the CoP16, the United States has taken significant measures to reduce the overall demand for ivory.

It has done so by creating and beginning to implement policies to decrease the trade in all ivory. Also, the United States is working with trade partners in China in hopes that it too will enact similar policies that will decrease the illegal trade of ivory and, as a result, poaching in Africa.

The FWS' proposed and realized actions have legal and policy implications that have caused domestic pushback. Part II. B discusses US domestic pushback from antique dealers, museums, and other interested parties. C discusses policy implications of imposing a similar ban in China. This section examines whether the FWS adhered to the procedures prescribed by law in creating the Director's Order.

Notice-and-Comment Rulemaking--or through adjudication in the form of orders. As mentioned above, policy statements need not be promulgated pursuant to Notice and Comment. Some lawyers argue that under the Supreme Court's holding in Heckler v. In analyzing the broader context of the special rule for antiques, there is some evidence that the Director's Order is more than the agency merely exercising its discretion within what is permissible.

The actions of the FWS raise a potential regulatory takings claim: whether prohibiting the export and intrastate sale of all but antique ivory, as well as prohibiting the import of any ivory, constitute a regulatory taking of personal property or, for ivory dealers, of a business interest? One of the first cases decided after Penn Central, Allard involves commercial traders in Indian artifacts that contained eagle feathers.

It is, to be sure, undeniable that the regulations here prevent the most profitable use of appellees property. Again, however, that is not dispositive. This decision seems to leave little room for a takings claim for ivory owners and dealers because, like in Allard, the imposition of the National Strategy would not impede on an owners right to inherit and own artifacts containing ivory.

South Carolina Coastal Council , Justice Rehnquist, in a dissenting opinion, differentiated between land and personal property. Eight years after Allard was decided, however, Justice Scalia, in a concurring opinion, wrote that Allard was limited to its facts. In June , however, the Supreme Court held that the Constitution provides a cognizable claim for takings of personal property.

Finally, antique ivory dealers may have a cognizable claim for a taking of their business interest if the National Strategy is implemented. United States recognized the loss of the going-concern value and good will as sufficient to show severe economic impact. In summary, the Director's Order clearly raises procedural and constitutional questions. Given current regulatory takings jurisprudence under Allard , a takings claim is not likely to succeed unless courts are willing to extend the Takings Clause to regulatory takings of personal property and not just merely per se takings of personal property, as held in Horne.

The government contends that the practical effect of the National Strategy, particularly under the Director's Order, is the creation of bright line rules. Grigsby , the government has the burden to prove that an individual bringing in black market ivory knew it was illegal and the individual had the specific intent to break the law. The advantage of the Director's Order is that it creates a bright line rule.

The approach simplifies things for the enforcement authorities, and makes it relatively easy for individuals and [stakeholders] to figure out how to comply with the rules. The disadvantage of having a simple, bright line rule, of course, is that it can cast too wide a net.

Here, the Director's Order sweeps in people and groups that otherwise would have legitimate uses for antique ivory, such as Like collectors, antique dealers, auction houses, and museums are also affected by the Director's Order and National Strategy. Art dealers respond by pointing out the hypocrisy in a regulatory regime that allows imports of sport-hunted trophies, but not antiques.

Museums that are interested primarily in antiques are concerned about restrictions on their ability to acquire, exhibit, and loan pieces containing ivory. Conservationists are split on whether a US ban of ivory sales will reduce the demand for ivory and whether that demand will affect poaching in Africa. Daniel Stiles, researcher and member of the IUCN, and John Frederick Walker, author and reporter on Africa, believe that a complete ban is counterintuitive to lowering the demand for ivory.

Stiles and Walker argue that instead of creating more regulations, funds should be poured into enforcement. Stiles argues that there are alternatives to a complete ban, such as levying a tax on ivory sales. Others, who agree with Dr. Stiles and Walker, argue that the ban is not based in science and will not actually have an effect on reducing poaching in Africa.

Part of the National Strategy is to work with foreign nations in creating and enforcing similar ivory trade bans. As discussed in Part I, the Chinese market for ivory is extremely complex. Due partially to the complexity of the market, conservationists disagree about the actual state of market demand in China, which complicates finding a meaningful solution to the problem.

For example, some groups like the Environmental Investigation Agency and conservationists like Grace Ge Gabriel, Asia Regional Director of IFAW, claim that legal ivory is so expensive as a result of the government artificially inflating the price that factories seek out illegal sources of ivory. Certain external world economic factors may also have driven increased demand, such the Asian Financial Crisis.

At the same time, China has become the world's largest exporter, causing an increase in demand for raw materials and increases in personal income. Finally, the demand for increased raw materials has caused the Chinese government to become a large investor in African economies. Given the complexities in the market, is an ivory ban the best solution or even feasible?

As discussed above, many proclaim that a ban in China is the only option that will be effective at ending the illegal ivory trade. Daniel Stiles, however, argues a ban is not the best solution and that if China was given a steady supply of ivory tons per year , the demand for illegal ivory would decrease, driving down the price and causing traffickers to either enter the legal trade or go out of business altogether. Stiles' ideas are a viable option.

Within China, there are mixed opinions about the ivory trade. Gao states:. Awareness about ivory trafficking has substantially increased in the past two years. The anti-all-trade perspective is gaining momentum. However, a ban on domestic ivory trade remains elusive. The current social context is not conducive to a trade ban[,] which would be a radical departure from existing policy.

A moratorium may become possible if Other scholars and economists offer non-legal methods as potential solutions and suggest that promoting increased Chinese tourism to Africa is a viable option, making elephants more valuable alive than dead for their tusks.

For example, basketball star Yao Ming participated in a documentary shown in China about ivory poaching. Conservationists still disagree about what effect a total ban on trade would have on poaching. Conservationists further disagree as to whether a ban is feasible in a country like China, where ivory is intertwined with their economy and their cultural heritage.

The National Strategy, while well intentioned, must be reconsidered. This Part offers some suggestions about how the United States and Chinese governments, as well as other interested parties, may resolve some of these issues. Moving forward, the United States needs to focus its attention on enforcement, not creating more laws. Also, while the United States can pressure China to create new laws, a cultural change in China is necessary.

The focus of the US Government should be aiding African nations in pursuit of preventing poaching. Until June , takings jurisprudence likely would have lead the author to believe that it was unlikely that a court would find the National Strategy to constitute a Taking requiring compensation. The National Strategy and the facts in Horne do differ, as regulatory takings do not affect possession.

If a Penn Central analysis is applied to businesses, the economic impact to commercial enterprises is undeniably significant. The Director's Order and the National Strategy should both be amended to avoid harming legitimate businesses. The anti-trade conservationists and scholars argue that there is no legitimate trade in ivory, as it is stained with immorality. As conservationists have shown, some illegal ivory in the United States is sold under the guise of the legal ivory trade.

Pro-ban scholars argue that a legal trade in any commodity can provide a cover for an illegal market. The complexities of the market for ivory are not as simple as in the United States, where consumers are mostly interested in ivory for decorative purposes. From a consumer perspective, the supply of ivory is threatened by proposed bans.

Further, given the historical and cultural importance that ivory holds, a ban on domestic ivory trade in China is unrealistic at this time. Market stability may be the best route to stopping further increases in demand for illegal ivory. As the President wrote:. It is the author's opinion that by mainly focusing on creating a ban, the FWS has failed in its mission to meet what the Executive Order seeks to do.

The focus should be on enforcement and providing support to FWS agents. The FWS can and should create domestic regulations, but without also destroying the rights of legitimate owners. Candidate , Fordham University School of Law.

I would like to thank Professor Aaron J. Saiger for his constant support, guidance, and suggestions throughout the writing process; Marcus Asner, Esq and Christopher Wlach, Esq for feedback on the tougher legal points; Professor Claire Huntington for the introduction to administrative law; Professor Carl Minzner for invaluable suggestions; Alison Shea, for hours of help with research; Hui Fang, for help with translating Chinese documents and insight into Chinese culture; and Maria Teresa Vanikiotis, for help throughout the editing process.

Thank you to those who introduced me to this topic and to the many who furthered my understanding of it. Finally, thank you to my family and friends for your love and support. See, e. By limiting ivory sales, the United States is sending an unequivocal message that it will not tolerate the senseless slaughter of wildlife and the global criminal syndicates it supports.

See Wing, supra note 6; Mashberg, supra note 5, at A15 discussing opposition to the near-complete ban. Affairs and the Subcomm. Asian and Pac. Affairs of the S. See sources cited supra note 8 noting the criticism of the Chinese import moratorium; Svati K. The United States and seven other countries also have crushed illegal ivory.

CN, Jan. In , however, the US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue specifically addressed problems with wildlife trafficking. Meng Xianlin, Exec. CN, Nov. The dung left by the animals--an average of pounds per animal each day--is rich in seeds, which are carried by birds to resow the land, enabling vegetation to re-establish. Sales from dung-based paper help to support local farmers. See SCHNEIDER, supra note 14, at citing loss of habitat from deforestation, scarce resources, range fragmentation, illegal coffee farming, oil plantations, human-animal conflict, and poaching as some of threats to elephant populations.

Only male Asian elephants grow tusks; therefore, their survival is dependent upon other factors. See id. Some evidence shows that African ivory is historically favored for its ability to be highly polished and not yellow with exposure to light.

See Sources of Ivory , N. It is superior to any other in the size of the tusks. Bowe Jr. Support for Combating Wildlife Trafficking Aug. The last comprehensive numerical survey of the population, which was conducted in , estimated ,, African elephants remain.

See Scriber, supra note Martin et al. See also Hearing Before the H. Congo Jan. Hunting techniques range from shooting poisoned arrows or propelling grenades from the ground to using helicopters to shoot with riffles. Reports of vulture poisoning have also surfaced, as vultures can locate a carcass within thirty minutes, whereas de-tusking an elephant takes forty-five to seventy-five minutes.

See Darcy L. Ogada, Op-Ed. Hearing Before the H. Engel, Member, H. Royce, Chairman, H. See also Martin et al. We can't ensure the future of elephants unless we can reduce demand for ivory where it is popular. Lieutenant General Seretse Khama Ian Khama of Botswana to raise support from other countries, especially in Asia, to stop wildlife trafficking.

See Hearing Before the H. Daniel M. Ashe, Dir. Although the primary markets are in Asia, the United States continues to play a role as a consumer and transit country for illegally trade wildlife. See also Int'l Found. Market , 1 Aug. See infra notes 40, 49 and accompanying text describing the US and Chinese illegal ivory markets. See infra notes and accompanying text revealing that most US consumers are mostly not interested in buying ivory per se, but are interested in buying antiques which may be made of ivory in whole or in part.

POST, Mar. But see infra note 42 and accompanying text summarizing conflicting arguments about the effect of the US market on poaching. Milliken et al. COM, Nov. Ivory Trade, supra note 13, at Illegal smuggling of wildlife crimes are prosecuted under the Lacey Act Amendments of , which prohibit interstate and foreign trade in violation of domestic and foreign law.

See generally 16 U. D discussing the US laws on ivory trade. See generally Carl W. As a result of the CITES-ban period, there has been a decline in the number of skilled ivory carvers. Factories attempted to survive the ban by shifting to other related products, the most common being mammoth tusks. But the report[s] Chinese buyers began purchasing The Chinese and Tanzanian governments deny these allegations and claim that while there are criminals from both countries involved in the illegal trade, the governments are not involved.

See S. Others see it as a good investment and many give ivory as a gift or bribe to win favour with an official or business contact. See Global Ivory Trade, supra note 38 showing a map of the main trade routes between Africa and China. For a more detailed map, see T. Demand in Thailand also plays a significant role in the illegal ivory trade. See James B. The management authority is responsible for overseeing the permitting process for imports and exports.

The Secretariat acts as a coordinator and is responsible for planning the meetings of the CoP, collecting reports from the Parties, and providing legislative and enforcement guidance when requested. CITES does, however, cover live specimens. Under Appendix I, an import permit from another country must be granted before an export permit will be issued.

For example, sea cucumbers from Ecuador are protected under Appendix III, but sea cucumbers from other countries are unlisted. All importers of an Appendix III species must present a certificate of origin and, if from an origin specified in Appendix III, an importer must also present an export permit from that country. Ivory Trade, supra note 13, at providing an Appendix history of the elephant.

See supra notes and accompanying text explaining the key differences between Appendix I and Appendix II species. The success of the treaty What is ETIS? See also Revision of See sources cited supra note providing background of ETIS.

Compare David J. Hayes et al. Sara Vinson et al. See T. See ETIS Report on Traffic, supra note 96, at 26 stating that the sanctions against the thirteen countries have since been revoked. II Rec. See Summary Record 6, supra note , at 2 summarizing the Chinese statements in regards to the ivory trade. A third important law, not discussed in this Note, is the Lacey Act, enacted in , which provides for criminal and civil sanctions against those involved in the illegal trade of wildlife.

See 16 U. As amended in , the Lacey Act prohibits wildlife trafficking and false labeling of endangered species in contravention of the law. See Braun, supra note 63, at LAND L. Ivory Trade, supra note 13, at providing background information about the ESA ; Treasured to Death, supra note 42, at 4 explaining the relationship between the ESA and other legislation. Ivory Trade, supra note 13, at 36, See U. See H. H daily ed. Beilenson explaining the structure of the selective moratorium.

Former Representative Anthony Beilenson, who sponsored the bill, withdrew support for a complete ban, which was echoed by all witnesses at a House hearing, except for those from the Humane Society. See 50 C.

See also E. Compare 16 U. See also , FWS, U. The ivory must be legally acquired under CITES and must be shipped within one year of the move, but acquired before the change in residence. This does not include exhibition of commodities by museums or similar Movement of ivory products within the U. Ivory Trade, supra note 13, at 43 explaining the regulations prior to the Director's Order. See supra notes and accompanying text analyzing the impact of US laws on the ivory trade.

See also U. See also Denise M. Mikota, ed. See Made in China, supra note , at 4; U. Council, Apr. POST, Nov. This, however, may change in the near future. See Exec. Order No. The United States Connolly, Member, H. Office of the President, 1, passim Feb. See New Restrictions, supra note outlining the two steps the FWS anticipated taking by June to prohibit commercial imports ; see also Interior Announces Ban, supra note 4 explaining what the FWS intends to do regarding ivory.

Interior Announces Ban, supra note 4 expounding on how the National Strategy will impact domestic ivory sales ; New Restrictions, supra note explaining that domestic sales were to be limited as far as constitutionally and statutorily possible. See supra note noting the effect of the National Strategy on domestic policy. On May 15, , the FWS amended the Director's Order to take into account some of the domestic pushback, discussed infra.

The amendment eased the requirements under the noncommercial import exceptions such as for musical instruments. See infra notes and accompanying text. See Director's Order No. These items may not be sold within the United States. As of the May amendment, the requirements for importing under this exception requires the ivory be legally acquired before February 26, , has not been traded for profit post-February 25, , and item has a CITES Certificate.

As of the May amendment, the requirements for importing under this exception the ivory must have legally acquired before February 26, , has not been traded for profit since February 25, , the individual or group has a CITES certificate, and the exhibition meets the requirements for an exhibition traveling internationally pursuant to 50 C. See also Interior Announces Ban, supra note 4, for the press announcement on the issue. See Hearing before the H. Yao Ming delivered a petition to the Chin[a] See infra note and accompanying text raising the question of whether the National Strategy effectuates a taking of personal property.

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Elephant hunter method forex news Outdoor Adver. The focus should be on enforcement and providing support to FWS agents. Please contact us as soon as possible after your book has been delivered. See sources cite supra note ; Appalachian PowerF. B discusses the current level of demand for ivory in the United States and China. They represent two different mindsets. See Rice, supra note elephant hunter method forex news that a total ivory ban is the best way to protect the elephants ; Allgood et al.
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